This Is Who Is Statistically Most Likely To Win ‘The Bachelorette’

Y’all, we’ve made it to Alabama Hannah’s season of The Bachelorette. Roll Tide! Sorry, I’ll stop that. It sounded weird to me too. Anyway, now that we’ve seen the first episode, I remain steadfast in my belief that Hannah is a normal person who is likeable and fun, with a nearly paralyzing fear of public speaking. So basically she’s just like us, only prettier. And to the person that asked, no ABC is not paying me to say that, but if they would like to I’m pretty cheap, and happy to give them my Venmo.

This Bachelorette is the first season in a long time for which I haven’t read any spoilers. TBH I had to force myself to stop because it was becoming a problem. Late night deep dives on Reddit, DMing Reality Steve until I was blocked, YouTube conspiracy videos—it wasn’t pretty. But since I don’t already know who wins this season, I can engage in a different kind of fun: betting on who it’s going to be. Hooray for new obsessions! Now, before I force convince my friends to place their wagers, I like to be as informed as possible. And thankfully for us, the kind folks at Sports Betting Dime sent me over the odds! Sports Betting Dime provides expert picks and industry data on sports and entertainment. I wonder if they’ll also provide the odds of whether I’ll ever be able to forget the sound of Colton shaking like a leaf on national television, because I see that in my nightmares! Let’s take a look at the odds they pulled for us before last night’s premiere!

How did they come up with these odds, you say? I’m glad you asked, because they provided a very helpful paragraph about that and I didn’t even have to write it myself.

These odds were gathered by our team of experts, who completed a well-educated analysis of all the information floating around this season of The Bachelorette. After reviewing spoilers leaked on Twitter and Instagram, reading stories by people in the know (like, @RealitySteve) who have/had strong opinions about who was the frontrunner, etc. and factoring in age and hometown (giving a slight edge to people from the south, because that’s where Hannah’s from) our team arrived at these odds. “

Delightful. So why don’t we take a look at some of these guys, taking into account what we watched last night, and see where we should place our bets.

Luke P.

Luke’s odds are 3/2, which I assume are good, since they put him first on this list! (I never claimed to understand this sh*t, okay?) I can see why he’s a safe bet—he’s hot, he found Jesus in the shower (??!?!?!!), and he successfully held a brand-new baby without its head rolling off, which is my biggest fear. Very impressive. On the other hand, he did growl at Hannah from the top of a limo, and he’s from Florida, which is an automatic penalty of three million points. Sorry Luke, I don’t make the rules, I just enforce them. But, Luke did get the first impression rose, which means he’s virtually impossible to beat. The last four Bachelorettes all picked their first impression rose as the winner. He’s the definition of a safe bet.

Tyler G.

Tyler G is second on my list, and his odds are 6/1 which sound good still! Unfortunately, last night was not good for Tyler. The only note I have for him is “Tyler G is getting good odds here? He didn’t blink once and his face is made of wax.” I think that was my polite way of saying I thought he seemed serial killer-esque. And yes, I did just quote myself. I can only assume these odds-makers know something I don’t. Perhaps he emerges late in the season to take the title, à la Catherine Lowe? For all the people that put money on Waxy, I hope that’s the case.

Jed W.

Well it’s not a good sign for Jed that everyone in my group chat was calling him Jeb last night, but it is a good sign that he’s third on my betting list. And after watching last night’s episode, I think I know why. THAT VOICE. He just sang his way into Hannah’s bedazzled gown pants with that little ditty. I’d say it’s safe to place your bets on Mr. Angel Voice. *smashes piggy bank*

Unfortunately for all of us, Jed’s Instagram is private, which means I had to pull his picture from ABC’s website, and everyone knows those pictures are the worst. Sorry Jed, but you did this to yourself.

Cam A.

Cam is one of the guys that got to meet Hannah early and received the rose at After the Final Rose, so it makes sense that he has relatively good odds and is fourth on my list. What does not make sense, however, is why he CONTINUES to rap everytime he is on my TV. Save that sh*t for the American Idol gag reel, sir. TBH I would subtract major points for the rap, but for some reason that I can only assume is past head trauma, Hannah loves this. She eats it right up. And he gets the first kiss of the season! So maybe he is a safe bet. Hannah claims she doesn’t have a type, but to me it seems to be “corny af”.

Some people ARE betting on this guy, sadly.

Garrett P.

And finally we’ve come to Garrett P, who is fifth on the list with odds of 19/1. When he walked in last night I thought he was FINE, and I’m actually surprised he’s not a higher bet. He’s a golf pro, you couldn’t get any safer than a dude that chose to play the most boring sport on the face of the earth. But that’s also what I thought about Tiger Woods until his wife came at him with a club. Hmm. Whatever, he’s hot, but maybe don’t put your money on him? I certainly won’t, but I most certainly WILL be sliding into his DMs when he inevitably gets cut. Should I insult his career when I do that, too?

And that’s what the odds are looking like right now! I asked my group chat last night as to who they would put their money on and they had some interesting ideas. It’s Britney, Betch (your resident recapper) would put her money on Garrett because he’s hot (FIGHT ME FOR HIM), and our friend Dani is willing to throwdown her hard-earned cash for Jed, because she’s a sucker for musicians. And I will actually be betting on Luke, who is the clear frontrunner here, and I don’t f*ck around when it comes to my money. You betches can pay up later!!

*UPDATE*

Here are the odds Sports Betting Dime sent us after last night’s episode:

Jed: 3-1

Tyler C: 4-1

Peter: 5-1

Luke P: 9-1

Cam: 12-1

Connor S: 19-1

Luke S: 24-1

Tyler G: 25-1

FIELD: 12-1

Images: Giphy (1); luke_parker777, tygwozdz, camronayala, rgarrettp/ Instagram, ABC

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