The Bachelor doesn’t premiere for another two weeks or so (yes, I could do the math but no, I won’t because I’m too lazy), but the speculation train is just getting started since ABC released the cast of Instagram models ladies vying for Arie’s love. I already broke down my thoughts and feelings on each and every one of them, and so did Jared Fried. But the question remains: Who’s going to win the prize of a Neil Lane diamond ring that’s been put on layaway Arie’s heart? The answer, for now, can only be found through Instagram. And, I guess, Reality Steve—but again, that’s no fun. So I did some serious internet stalking, and here’s who I think will win The Bachelor, and who will lose, based on their current IG presence. Before we get started, I’d just like to say that I’m not going to judge everyone, because there are 30 of them and I don’t have the time for that. I’ll just tackle the highs and the lows—who I think will be major players, and who will go the way of Mohit and get eliminated on the first night after getting blackout and screaming “Nooo!” from a distance while watching one of the contestants score a kiss.

Bibiana

Let’s start with Bibiana, because she’s the most interesting. Namely, her profile is private. This points to one of two possibilities: Either she’s really here for the right reasons and makes it pretty far in the competition and maybe even wins and is preemptively protecting her and Arie’s privacy, OR she does or says something extremely bad and gets sent home early on because of it. No other in-between is possible; I can’t wait to see which option it is. I’m kind of rooting for the latter because I’m a garbage human.

Jenna

I think Jenna will do pretty well in the competition for a few reasons. One, she’s blonde, and we know Arie has a penchant for Barbie lookalikes. Two, Jenna’s Instagram is a pretty healthy mix between blatant promotion and real pictures of her life, friends, home-cooked meals, etc. She’s got aspirations of shilling hair vitamins, but she’s pretty down-to-earth despite that. However, looking at Jenna’s IG, one thing becomes clear: She really fucking loves North Carolina. I predict that being a problem when Arie asks if she’d ever relocate to Arizona for him and she answers that question by going on about Raleigh for five solid minutes. He’ll send her home after winning a two-on-one date when he realizes she’ll never leave her hometown.

Bekah M

I did an in-depth review of Bekah’s Instagram, and I’m not going to rehash the same shit I said there, but basically, I see Bekah M getting eliminated on the second night. She’s different enough to make it past the first rose ceremony on the interesting factor alone, but not any farther than that. Personally, I love the pixie cut, but Arie just does not seem like the type of guy who’s down with an alternative artsy chick. Second of all, we’ve pretty definitively concluded that she’s 22 years old. I know Arie likes younger women, but there’s just no way he could keep a 22-year-old around on The Bachelor and live it down. 

Caroline

I personally think there’s a strong chance Caroline will win. She’s gorgeous, she’s funny (peep her captions), and she’s like, a nice person—her Insta story today was a swipe up to donate for Alzheimer’s research. (Please don’t tell the guy I’m dating about my Instagram habits.) Anyway, Caroline is an Instagram model (plus for Arie) who at least seems self-aware (plus for us, the viewers). Am I just saying all this, including that she will win, because she looks like a hotter Vanessa? Maybe.

Kendall

Kendall is that hot girl who eats a slice of pizza and thinks she’s quirky for doing it. But I think her “guy’s girl who’s clearly just a hot girl who’s out of touch with what women actually like” image will get her pretty far in this competition. She’ll probably like, drop one fact about car racing and Arie will jizz his pants. Also, Kendall has a twin named Kylie. Yes, this is true. No, I don’t know what to do with that information, but I assume Arie will find out at some point, so you know Kendall will at least stick around until hometowns.

Nysha

See, I personally respect Nysha’s no-thirst-trap approach to Instagram, but I have a feeling that Arie won’t. Her pictures are mostly selfies and memes—which, again, let me reiterate that I fully support—but you’d think that if she even made it decently far into the competition she’d have hooked herself up with a photographer and gotten a few modeling shots up by now. I think Nysha gets eliminated night one because she’s kept her IG too low-key for me to think otherwise. Also, as of 14 hours ago she is still a nurse—so yeah, she definitely packs it in on the first elimination. Good for you, Nysha. Don’t quit your day job. Seriously, the world doesn’t need more FitTea, but we definitely have no shortage of nurses.

Seinne

I’m conflicted about Seinne. On the one hand, pretty much every photo is from a photoshoot. It’s not a bad thing per se, but it does give me a clue that they probably would have applied to be on The Bachelor regardless of who the Bachelor was. On the other hand, Seinne is gorgeous. I’m not really sure how I feel about the “mind | body | soul” bio, but she seems pretty likable—she has a group pic with a bunch of the contestants—and again, is gorgeous. I think she’ll do pretty well. And now if you’ll excuse me, I’ll be looking at Seinne’s abs while shame-eating garlic bread.

That’s all I really have the time or desire to roast today. I did want to mention Marikh and Olivia, who I think will make it decently far because I get the impression that they have big personalities. But I also know that if I delve any further into these Instagram profiles, I’m going to end up breaking down all 30 of them. Therefore, I’m going to quit while I’m ahead. If I am correct about any of these predictions, you all owe me $5.